Author: DrafttekStaff_Longball | Filed under: Uncategorized

  - submitted by Long Ball, DOF

 

How did you do on the Chapter 4 test?  Ready to take it a step further?  OK, you have just been promoted to General Manager of your favorite NFL team – there’s a reason you got the job, your team has not been doing well, you have an impatient billionaire owner and you have to get value on your first draft – or there may not be a second draft (how’s that for impatient?)

 

While it’s true that drafts are measured by later-round gems, you cannot afford to miss on any of your choices in the first 3 rounds.  You are well aware of the failure rate of early round selections invested in quarterbacks and wide receivers, running backs have become somewhat of a commodity, and then, out of the blue, you remember “Professor Long Ball used to extol the virtues of the Big Uglies!”

So, do we go offensive or defensive with our Big Uglies?  Let’s start the research with the first three rounds of the 2009 Draft, offensive linemen first then defensive linemen:

 

Rd        Sel                     Player                  Pos                School                Team/Result     

 1           2        Jason Smith                         OT            Baylor                    Rams / Back-up

 1           6        Andre Smith                         OT            Alabama                Bengals / Back-up

 1           8        Eugene Monroe                               OT            Virginia                  Jaguars / Starter

 1         21       Alex Mack                             OC            California               Browns / Starter

 1         23       Michael Oher                        OT            Mississippi             Ravens / Starter

 1         28       Eric Wood                            OC            Louisville               Bills / Starter

 2         39       Eben Britton                         OT            Arizona                  Jaguars / Starter

 2         49       Max Unger                            OT            Oregon                  Seahawks / Starter

 2         51       Andy Levitre                         OG            Oregon State        Bills / Starter

 2         54       Phil Loadholt                        OT            Oklahoma              Vikings / Starter

 2         58       Sebastian Vollmer                OT            Houston                Patriots / Back-up

 2         60       William Beatty                      OT            Connecticut          Giants / Back-up

 3         75       Robert Brewster                   OT            Ball State               Cowboys / Injured

 3         77       Antoine Caldwell                   OC            Alabama                Texans / Back-up

 3         78       Louis Vasquez                      OG            Texas Tech            Chargers / Starter

 3         79       Kraig Urbik                           OT            Wisconsin             Steelers / Back-up 

 

Hmmm, pretty impressive – 9 first year starters, 6 solid back-ups and only 1 lost year due to injury.  OK, how about the defense?

 

Rd        Sel                     Player                  Pos                School                Team/Result     

 1           3        Tyson Jackson                      DE            LSU                       Chiefs / Starter

 1           9        B.J. Raji                                NT            Boston College      Packers / Starter

 1         11       Aaron Maybin                       DE            Penn State            Bills / Back-up

 1         13       Brian Orakpo                        DE            Texas                    Redskins / Starter

 1         16       Larry English                        DE            Northern Illinois     Chargers / Back-up

 1         24       Peria Jerry                            DT            Mississippi            Falcons / Back-up

 1         32       Ziggy Hood                          DT            Missouri                Steelers / Back-up

 2         40       Ron Brace                            DT            Boston College      Patriots / Back-up

 2         43       Everette Brown                                DE            Florida State          Panthers / Back-up

 2         46       Connor Barwin                      DE            Cincinnati              Texans / Back-up

 2         52       David Veikune                      DE            Hawaii                   Browns / Back-up

 2         56       Fili Moala                              DT            USC                       Colts / Back-up

 2         57       Paul Kruger                          DE            Utah                      Ravens / Back-up

 2         62       Sen’Derrick Marks                DT            Auburn                  Titans / Back-up

 2         63       Cody Brown                          DE            Connecticut          Cardinals / Injured

 3         67       Alex Magee                          DT            Purdue                  Chiefs / Back-up

 3         68       Jarron Gilbert                       DT            San Jose State      Bears / Back-up

 3         70       Michael Johnson                   DE            Georgia Tech         Bengals / Back-up

 3         71       Matt Shaughnessy               DE            Wisconsin             Raiders / Back-up

 3         72       Terrance Knighton               DT            Temple                             Jaguars / Starter

 3         81       Roy Miller                             DT            Texas                    Bucs / Back-up

 3         93       Corvey Irvin                         DT            Georgia                             Panthers / Injured  

 

Not quite as impressive – 4 first year starters, 16 back-ups and 2 lost to injury.  OK then, but sometimes it takes a year or two for a player to get used to the speed of the NFL game, and one year is a pretty small sample size.  Let’s see what happened to the players drafted in 2008:

 

Rd        Sel                     Player                  Pos                School                Team/Result     

 1           1        Jake Long                             OT            Michigan                Dolphins / Starter

 1         12       Ryan Clady                           OT            Boise State           Broncos / Starter

 1         14       Chris Williams                       OT            Vanderbilt             Bears / Starter

 1         15       Branden Albert                     OT            Virginia                  Chiefs / Starter

 1         17       Gosder Cherilus                               OT            Boston College      Lions / Starter

 1         19       Jeff Otah                               OT            Pittsburgh             Panthers / Starter

 1         21       Sam Baker                           OT            USC                       Falcons / Starter

 1         26       Duane Brown                       OT            Virginia Tech         Texans / Starter

 2         39       Chilo Rachal                          OG            USC                       49’ers / Starter

 2         59       Mike Pollak                           OG            Arizona State         Colts / Starter

 3         65       John Greco                          OT            Toledo                   Rams / Back-up

 3         83       Jeremy Zuttah                     OG            Rutgers                             Bucs / Starter

 3         96       Chad Rinehart                      OT            Northern Iowa       Redskins / Back-up

 3         99       Oniel Cousins                       OT            UTEP                     Ravens / Back-up

 

A footnote is required for Mike Pollak – he started his rookie year, but was replaced after the first 7 games the second year by yet another rookie, Kyle DeVan.  Nevertheless, whether it’s 10 or 11 starters versus 3 or 4 back-ups, those are still pretty good odds.

 

On the defensive side of the ball:

 

Rd        Sel                     Player                  Pos                School                Team/Result     

 1           2        Chris Long                            DE            Virginia                  Rams / Starter

 1           5        Glenn Dorsey                       DT            LSU                       Chiefs / Starter

 1           7        Sedrick Ellis                          DT            USC                       Saints / Starter

 1           8        Derrick Harvey                     DE            Florida                   Jaguars / Starter

 1         28       Lawrence Jackson                DE            USC                       Seahawks / Starter

 1         29       Kentwan Balmer                   DE            North Carolina      49’ers / Back-up

 2         32       Phillip Merling                       DE            Clemson               Dolphins / Back-up

 2         47       Trevor Laws                         DT            Notre Dame          Eagles / Back-up

 2         50       Calais Campbell                                DE            Miami (Fla)            Cardinals / Starter

 2         52       Quentin Groves                                DE            Auburn                  Jaguars / Back-up

 2         54       Jason Jones                         DT            E. Michigan            Titans / Back-up

 3         66       Kendall Langford                  DE            Hampton               Dolphins / Starter

 3         72       Chris Ellis                             DE            Virginia Tech         Bills / Back-up

 3         77       Pat Sims                               DT            Auburn                  Bengals / Back-up

 3         80       Bryan Smith                         DE            McNeese State      Eagles / Back-up

 3         87       Andre Fluellen                      DT            Florida State          Lions / Back-up

 3         90       Marcus Harrison                   DT            Arkansas               Bears / Back-up

 3         92       Cliff Avril                               DE            Purdue                  Lions / Starter

 

Further footnotes:  Chris Long started every game as a rookie, but was replaced 4 games into his second season and is now a back-up.  Quentin Groves did start 7 games in 2009, Pat Sims started 14 games in 2 years and Marcus Harrison started 9 games in 2009.  However you decide to interpret that information, less than 50% of defensive linemen drafted in the first 3 rounds of the 2008 Draft are starters.

 

Shall we look at one more year?  The infamous “they” always say to not judge a draft for three years – 2007, here we come:

 

Rd        Sel                     Player                  Pos                School                Team/Result     

 1           3        Joe Thomas                        OT            Wisconsin             Browns / Starter

 1           5        Levi Brown                           OT            Penn State            Cardinals / Starter

 1         28       Joe Staley                            OT            C. Michigan            49’ers / Starter

 1         29       Ben Grubbs                          OG            Auburn                  Ravens / Starter

 2         35       Aaron Sears                         OG            Tennessee            Bucs / Starter

 2         39       Justin Blalock                       OG            Texas                    Falcons / Starter

 2         42       Tony Ugoh                           OT            Arkansas               Colts / Back-up

 2         59       Ryan Kalil                              OC            USC                       Panthers / Starter

 2         60       Samson Satele                     OC            Hawaii                   Dolphins / Starter

 3         67       James Marten                      OT            Boston College      Cowboys / Back-up

 3         70       Ryan Harris                          OT            Notre Dame          Broncos / Starter

 3         86       Marshal Yanda                      OT            Iowa                      Ravens / Starter

 3         88       Andy Alleman                       OG            Akron                    Saints / Back-up

 3         91       Mario Henderson                  OT            Florida State          Raiders / Starter

 

Now, some of the players have changed teams; however, the result I listed is the status they have with their current teams.  I count 11 starters and 3 back-ups – and Tony Ugoh has started 27 games in 3 years!  I bet those of you well-versed in statistical analysis are finally beginning to see a trend here – oh well, let’s look at the defensive line draftees from 2007:

 

Rd        Sel                     Player                  Pos                School                Team/Result     

 1           4        Gaines Adams                      DE            Clemson               Bucs / Starter

 1           8        Jamaal Anderson                  DE            Arkansas               Falcons / Starter

 1         10       Amobi Okoye                       DT            Louisville               Texans / Starter

 1         13       Adam Carriker                      NT            Nebraska               Rams / Starter

 1         16       Justin Harrell                        DT            Tennessee            Packers / Back-up

 1         17       Jarvis Moss                           DE            Florida                  Broncos / Back-up

 2         33       Alan Branch                          DT            Michigan                Cardinals / Back-up

 2         54       Turk McBride                        DE            Tennessee            Chiefs / Back-up

 2         56       Tim Crowder                        DE            Texas                    Broncos / Starter

 2         57       Victor Abiamiri                      DE            Notre Dame          Eagles / Back-up

 2         58       Ikaika Alama-Francis            DE            Hawaii                   Lions / Back-up

 3         62       Dan Bazuin                           DE            C. Michigan            Bears / OOTL

 3         65       Quentin Moses                     DE            Georgia                             Raiders / Back-up

 3         81       Jay Alford                             NT            Penn State            Giants / Back-up

 3         82       Tank Tyler                            DT            N. Carolina St.       Chiefs / Starter

 3         83       Charles Johnson                   DE            Georgia                             Panthers / Back-up

 3         85       Brandon Mebane                  DT            California               Seahawks / Starter

 3         97       Ray McDonald                       DE            Florida                   49’ers / Back-up

 3         98       Quinn Pitcock                       DT            Ohio State             Colts / OOTL

 

The late Gaines Adams was a starter with the Buccaneers, but a rotational player with the Bears, and Tank Tyler started his second year with the Chiefs, but is now in a back-up role with the Panthers.  “Professor Long Ball, what’s an OOTL?”  LOL, that’s an acronym for “Out Of The League”!  So, we have 6 starters, 11 back-ups and 2 who are out of the league.

 

OK, Mr. General Manager, now you have all the research from the Long Ball Institute of “I don’t have enough to keep me busy!”  So, how are you going to invest your draft choices in the first three rounds?  Yep, the rest of the equation is totally up to you – are you a riverboat gambler or do you want to go for the sure thing?

 

Well folks, this concludes another year of posts on the less glamorous positions in football – I certainly hope you have enjoyed them, and more importantly, learned a little more about some of the prospects in this year’s draft.  Be kind to Big Uglies that you pass on the street – one of them just might be ole Long Ball!

 

The Big Ugly Hisself,

Long Ball